BRICS – Dawn of a New World Order?

In the below article, which was contributed for discussion to the Socialist Network, an international body with sections in several countries, and which originally appeared on their website, Pat Byrne poses the question as to whether the BRICS grouping, whose 2023 summit meeting was held in South Africa in August, can lead to the dawning of a new world order. It might, he argues, be “a turning point that could mark the beginning of the end of the US-led, neo-imperialist international system. In its place, the BRICS are calling for a new world order that seeks to create a more fair, prosperous, equal, democratic, peaceful and cooperative planet. If that happens, it would possibly open the way for a global democratic socialist era for humanity.”

The August meeting, he writes, “confounded the sceptics, attracting an impressive turnout of around sixty countries among whom 40 indicated a desire to join the new bloc.” As a result, “the BRICS has the potential to become the world’s most important international institution. As a future bloc that strives to coordinate the economies, future development, geopolitical positions and security of the large majority of countries, the BRICS promises to become more influential than the United Nations, never mind the G7 or G20.”

Already, “there has been a two decades-long trend in which the combined economies of the G7 have been declining while the BRICS have been rising. Soon, as more countries join the BRICS, there will be no dispute over which bloc is economically stronger.”

Having analysed the individual significance of the six countries who have been invited to take up full BRICS membership from January 1, 2024, as the first tranche of a planned wave of successive expansion, Pat turns his attention to a number of questions and doubts that are often posed, particularly on the left, starting with whether the BRICS is anti-imperialist. He argues:

“While many western commentators appreciate the threat that the BRICS poses to Western hegemony, there are many on the Left, especially in the neo-imperialist countries, who are sceptical about whether the new bloc represents a genuine challenge to imperialism. In some ways, this questioning appears to flow more from the lack of symbolism and ideological phraseology used by BRICS, rather than from its actual principles and content. No doubt, if the BRICS Summit was full of red, flag-waving activists chanting ‘Down with American Imperialism’ many more in the international Left would be convinced of the anti-imperialist direction of BRICS. However, it will be the deeds of the BRICS that will determine its true character rather than its outward appearance. For now, it is important for socialists around the world to become properly aware of the values and principles that the BRICS members have accepted as the basis of their new organisation and programme.”

He further notes that that these values and principles are largely based on China’s long-held international programme, starting with the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence and now augmented by the Global Development, Global Security, and Global Civilisation Initiatives:

“Thus the BRICS stands for an end to international exploitation of the developing world and for sustained cooperative economic development that can raise the living standards of the majority of humanity. To achieve this the BRICS is particularly seeking to encourage and foster trade and economic activity between the developing countries, creating an increasingly powerful parallel international economy free from the old patterns of trade with the rich countries and the imperialist domination that went with it.”

This is, “clearly a fundamental departure from the existing neo-imperialist system which has enabled those countries in Europe and North America that first began to adopt capitalism and plunder the world, to continue to maintain their advantage over the rest of the planet.”

How it will be possible for an organisation that includes many countries with reactionary governments to become a progressive force for change is, he agress, an understandable question, but explains:

“Here, there is a misunderstanding about the nature of BRICS. This is not a bloc that seeks to achieve ideological agreement across the board, such as we saw attempted by the Soviet Union internationally in decades past. Rather, it is a united front which aims to bring together a range of different governments and countries which are agreed on the need to end the old neo-imperialist world order. In its place, the BRICS wishes to establish a new world order based on genuine sovereignty, cooperation and consensus rule by the international majority.”

As the world order represented by the BRICS increasingly supersedes the neoliberal ideology prevalent in the west, “the class struggle over the distribution of wealth between and within individual countries will proceed, but in far more favourable circumstances than we faced in the past. So too will the struggle for more progressive social policies. Moreover, the fact that an increasingly more successful China sits at the core of the BRICS development, gives considerable hope that the socialist agenda will come to the fore in the new world system that is emerging… Certainly, the BRICS will not replace the class struggle which will need to be continued in each country in order to ensure the aims of this programme are fully realised. But the BRICS programme and the progressive propaganda that surrounds it can inspire working people and create a better environment for the class struggle to be waged successfully.”

The 2023 BRICS Summit that was recently held in South Africa might turn out as an event of historic importance. A turning point that could mark the beginning of the end of the US-led, neo-imperialist international system. In its place, the BRICS are calling for a new world order that seeks to create a more fair, prosperous, equal, democratic, peaceful and cooperative planet. If that happens, it would possibly open the way for a global democratic socialist era for humanity.

In the run up to the BRICS Summit there was widespread speculation over whether it would be successful. Or even able to make any serious progress. However, the Summit confounded the sceptics, attracting an impressive turnout of around sixty countries among whom 40 indicated a desire to join the new bloc. After complex discussions the founding BRICS members, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, finally agreed to open their doors to new members and begin to respond to the scores of membership requests. Thus, from next January they invited six new countries to join – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Argentina. But this is just the beginning. A process for new membership has been decided upon with the stated objective of joining many more nations in successive waves. In time, it is possible that the BRICS will come to include 150 or more countries. For example, all of the 131 countries in the progressive Group of 77 are likely to join. Similarly, almost all of the 155 countries which are currently part of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative will want to sign up.

This means that the BRICS has the potential to become the world’s most important international institution. As a future bloc that strives to coordinate the economies, future development, geopolitical positions and security of the large majority of countries, the BRICS promises to become more influential than the United Nations, never mind the G7 or G20. Already, the BRICS will soon become the voice of ‘the global majority’. Once the first wave of new countries join BRICS next January, the combined population of BRICS will be 47% of the world’s population. Undoubtedly, this will rise above 50% in 2025 after the next wave of expansion. As such, BRICS is poised to become a stronger and more progressive version of the United Nations. Not just a political arena but also an economic and security bloc free of the reactionary presence of the neo-imperialist countries that have long prevented the UN from implementing its Charter.  

Debt & Dollar Dominance

In economic terms, there is an inevitable comparison being made between the BRICS and the G7 group of rich neo-imperialist countries. In nominal GDP terms, the G7 accounts for 44% of the world economy while the newly expanded BRICS represents 30%. However, if the more modern Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) version of GDP is used, then the BRICS is already larger than the G7, at 37% of the global economy compared to 30%. Whichever measure is used, there has been a two decades-long trend in which the combined economies of the G7 have been declining while the BRICS have been rising. Soon, as more countries join the BRICS, there will be no dispute over which bloc is economically stronger. And this will only become more obvious once the BRICS further expands production and trade between its members.

In more specific terms, the newly enlarged BRICS is becoming dominant in many sectors. For example, from next year BRICS will include six of the world’s top ten oil producers, nearly 40 per cent of the world’s natural gas supply, and 67 percent of coal production. The position for new energy is yet more commanding with BRICS responsible for 90 percent of the supply chain for solar panels and electric batteries. Even more important, the BRICS 11 nations account for one third of the world’s food, and a big majority of the global supply of minerals and raw materials.

The same picture emerges in manufacturing capacity. The G7 now only accounts for 36% of global manufacturing. In contrast, China alone produces nearly 30% of global production which combined with Russia and newly emergent economies like India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, South Africa, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kazakstan, Bangladesh, Thailand and so on, accounts for an increasing majority of the world’s manufacturing. 

Interestingly, despite all the well-publicised problems of debt in the developing world, the BRICS countries are actually in a better situation than the G7. While the new BRICS 11 owe $9 trillion, the G7 countries owe a whopping $56 trillion, nearly ten times more! Of course, $32 trillion of the G7 debt is held by the United States alone. The US is only able to maintain such a debt, along with its massive trade imbalance, through its ability to print huge amounts of money as part of the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency. It is this privileged position that also allows America to maintain all of its other massive debts including government spending deficits; bloated military spending; bank liabilities; mortgage and credit card debts; auto and student loans etc.

One of the key aims of the BRICS is to end the use of the dollar for trade transactions and central bank holdings. Initially, this is taking the form of increasing trade using local currencies. The more this happens the less the US and its allies will be able to continue using the dollar system to sanction scores of countries which refuse to do their bidding. Further weakening the US sanctions regime, we are now seeing BRICS members develop alternatives to the SWIFT inter-bank payment transfer system and the use of western credit cards. 

More broadly, the BRICS is looking to end the use of the dollar and the international financial institutions that control the finances of the poorer nations and keep them in permanent debt servitude. To this end, the BRICS has established its own New Development Bank. At the same time, the BRICS are pushing for more representation in the existing global financial bodies such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. As the BRICS grows and becomes stronger such efforts will gain traction, while its own alternative institutions will take on more substance.

In the longer term an alternative global currency system is likely to emerge. This spells potential doom for the economy of the United States as long as it clings onto its neoliberal capitalist model. Not only will the US be unable to continue borrowing money from the world money markets, but a declining dollar is likely to force up interest rates in the US to a level that will cause defaults and depression across many sectors.

The Significance of the New BRICS members

The six new members of the BRICS announced at last month’s Summit were carefully selected. For example, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran are not only leading oil producers and members of OPEC, but have recently agreed to work together in a recent deal brokered by Russia and China. This deal is a key example of China’s strategy of using the Belt and Road Initiative and its recent Global Development and Security Initiatives, to bring formerly hostile countries together in a programme for peace and prosperity. In particular, China has persuaded Iran and Saudi Arabia to bury their hatchets and focus on economically developing the Middle East while ending the conflicts that have plagued the region for generations. In doing so, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States have decided to turn their back on the United States and to reject the Western divide and rule tactics that have long sought to create a reactionary alliance between Israel and some of the Arab states against Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Already we have seen a ceasefire in Yemen and a potential end to conflicts elsewhere in the area. If this new arrangement holds it will represent a great historic advance for the peoples of the Middle East. 

A similar story applies to new BRICS’ member Ethiopia. Not only is Ethiopia the second most populous country in Africa, it is the diplomatic capital of the continent, housing the headquarters of the African Union and the new African Centre for Disease Control. Moreover, until recently it was a showcase for the Belt and Road Initiative with the fastest economic growth rate in Africa. That is until the recent civil war with Tigre engineered by the United States. Once again, using the tactic of divide and rule, the US has been setting the different nations of the Horn of Africa against each other. The result has been a series of external and internal wars involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. Between them, these conflicts have killed and maimed millions and displaced tens of millions more. However, with the help of China and Russia, most of these conflicts have finally come to an end, opening up the prospect of sustained peaceful and prosperous economic development in the region.

Egypt is a less dramatic case but as a leading Arab nation with the third highest population in Africa and its second largest economy, Egypt’s coming inclusion in the BRICS is of considerable significance. Egypt is particularly well placed geographically facing the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Red Sea. As well as hosting the key Suez Canal that links the Indian Ocean and Europe.

Argentina is perhaps the most problematic of the new members of the BRICS family. As the third largest economy of Latin America it should represent a key addition to BRICS but it is beset by very serious debt difficulties along with resulting inflation and political instability. In that sense, Argentina offers the example of a debt challenge that the BRICS needs to show it can overcome, if it is to also make progress in similar situations such as in Sri Lanka, Zambia and Pakistan. To make matters worse, elections are due in October in which the two main opposition candidates have pledged to reject BRICS membership. So there may be a considerable delay before Argentina takes up its BRICS invitation. 

Is BRICS Anti-imperialist?

While many western commentators appreciate the threat that the BRICS poses to Western hegemony, there are many on the Left, especially in the neo-imperialist countries, who are sceptical about whether the new bloc represents a genuine challenge to imperialism. In some ways, this questioning appears to flow more from the lack of symbolism and ideological phraseology used by BRICS, rather than from its actual principles and content. No doubt, if the BRICS Summit was full of red, flag-waving activists chanting ‘Down with American Imperialism’ many more in the international Left would be convinced of the anti-imperialist direction of BRICS. However, it will be the deeds of the BRICS that will determine its true character rather than its outward appearance. For now, it is important for socialists around the world to become properly aware of the values and principles that the BRICS members have accepted as the basis of their new organisation and programme.

These values and principles are largely based on China’s long-held international programme. First of all they include China’s Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. These principles argue for mutual non-aggression between nations. That each country should be treated and respected as an equal irrespective of its size, wealth and population. That no nation should undermine the sovereignty of another or its territorial integrity. Or try to interfere with its internal affairs. That countries should cooperate for mutual benefit rather than engage in destructive competition.

China has recently extended these principles with three new strategies: its Global Development, Global Security, and Global Civilisational Initiatives. These new strategies have been welcomed by the BRICS and together they form the framework for the non-imperialist world order the BRICS is aiming to create. Thus the BRICS stands for an end to international exploitation of the developing world and for sustained cooperative economic development that can raise the living standards of the majority of humanity. To achieve this the BRICS is particularly seeking to encourage and foster trade and economic activity between the developing countries, creating an increasingly powerful parallel international economy free from the old patterns of trade with the rich countries and the imperialist domination that went with it. 

As part of this effort BRICS intends to bring the raw material producers together and end the atomisation of developing countries which has allowed the rich countries and their local wholesalers and distributors to pay rock bottom prices for their raw materials. Likewise, BRICS is committed to ending the old colonial economic model in which developing countries supply cheap raw materials to the richer countries who then refine, process and market them and thus gain the lion’s share of the profits. Instead, conscious steps are planned by the BRICS to move production up the value chain so that developing countries can begin to produce and market the finished goods and capture the full value of their effort. To help achieve this upgrade in production capacity, the BRICS has also called for the transfer and exchange of appropriate technology between its members.

Last but not least, BRICS accepts much of the Chinese mixed economy model in which the Public Sector takes the lead in investment and innovation and the private sector works within the framework of publicly determined goals.

All of this is clearly a fundamental departure from the existing neo-imperialist system which has enabled those countries in Europe and North America that first began to adopt capitalism and plunder the world, to continue to maintain their advantage over the rest of the planet. As the image below shows, the distribution of global wealth that exists today is almost identical to what it was in the late 19th Century. This is no accident of history but the result of deliberate and often violent action by the elites in the richer countries in order to keep themselves on top. It is precisely to challenge this shameful and fatal system that BRICS is now emerging.

To overcome this stark level of global inequality between and within nations, the BRICS has adopted the slogan of ‘shared prosperity’ and strives to achieve poverty reduction in all of its programmes. It has also placed the demand for ‘inclusive growth’ high on its agenda so that the benefits of economic expansion are properly distributed to previously underprivileged sections of society such as women, youth and the elderly. At the same time, BRICS is strongly committed to green, environmentally sustainable development.

From all of the above we can see that the aims and values of the BRICS are fundamentally opposed to those of the existing neo-imperial and neoliberal world order. Even if for public relations purposes the BRICS leaders have avoided stating this in order to avoid providing extra excuses for aggression from the neo-imperialist powers. 

A Movement that is too Diverse

An understandable question about the BRICS raised by many on the Left concerns the highly diverse nature of its existing and future membership. For example, relations between China and India are at a low point. More broadly, an understandable question to ask is how it will be possible for an organisation that includes many countries with reactionary governments to become a progressive force for change? Here, there is a misunderstanding about the nature of BRICS. This is not a bloc that seeks to achieve ideological agreement across the board, such as we saw attempted by the Soviet Union internationally in decades past. Rather, it is a united front which aims to bring together a range of different governments and countries which are agreed on the need to end the old neo-imperialist world order. In its place, the BRICS wishes to establish a new world order based on genuine sovereignty, cooperation and consensus rule by the international majority. BRICS also stands for the progressive range of values outlined above which virtually all developing countries now adhere to.

The obvious contradiction between the BRICS approach to economic development and the West’s neoliberal capitalist ideology will become much clearer as the BRICS new world order supersedes the old one. It is within such a new world order that the class struggle over the distribution of wealth between and within individual countries will proceed, but in far more favourable circumstances than we faced in the past. So too will the struggle for more progressive social policies. Moreover, the fact that an increasingly more successful China sits at the core of the BRICS development, gives considerable hope that the socialist agenda will come to the fore in the new world system that is emerging.     

Won’t BRICS Be Paralysed by Division?

In addition to BRICS being very diverse and divided ideologically, its decision-making process is based on consensus rather than majority voting. A number of Left commentators have predicted that this will mean that BRICS will not be able to make the tough decisions it will need in order to overcome its major obstacles. However, the larger that BRICS becomes the greater the pressure there will be on each individual nation to go along with the consensus. And the harder it will be for any small minority to resist the mood of the majority.

Already we saw evidence of this effect in this year’s decision on BRICS expansion. According to Reuters, India introduced last minute conditions on who could join the organisation. Acting as a spoiler, possibly in consultation with the Americans, Indian Prime Minister Modi proposed that no country could join BRICS that was currently under economic sanctions. This would have effectively given the United States a veto over future membership of the BRICs and would have automatically excluded countries like Iran, Cuba, Venezuela etc.

Modi also proposed that future members would need to have a certain level of GDP to qualify for membership. However, this would hardly have gone down well with all the smaller countries, especially with BRICS standing for all nations to be treated equally irrespective of size and wealth. Thus, India found itself isolated in its proposals. Meanwhile, the decision of the various countries to apply for BRICS membership would not have been taken lightly, given that it risked angering the US with all of the possible dangers that could ensue. This inevitably increased the pressure on the BRICS over accepting new members. If India was seen as the one country that was responsible for preventing particular nations from joining BRICS, it would have been a disaster for Indian diplomacy. So Modi was forced to withdraw his extra conditions.

Now that BRICS is doubling its membership and is likely to do the same in 2025, the influence of the original founders will naturally be diluted and it will become much harder for any one country to hold up the rest of the movement.

Is BRICS a modern version of the Non Aligned Movement?

A number of sceptics on the international Left are dismissing the emergence of the BRICS as a repeat of the past, comparing it to the old Non-Aligned Movement which was founded back in 1955. Yes, the Non-Aligned Movement stood for many of the same principles of the BRICS today, but it emerged in a very different world that was dominated by two superpowers who sought to force the rest of the world to choose between them. Crucially, the Non-Aligned Movement lacked any economic or other means to put its principles into action. Thus the NAM was full of worthy slogans against imperialism but was unable to do anything about them.

The BRICS is emerging in a very different situation. It is not seeking to create ‘a third way’ but to create an entirely new world order free of imperialism. And unlike the old Non-Aligned Movement, the BRICS has the tools needed to make this happen.

BRICS Organisational Strategy

The BRICS Summits are just the annual, public face of the new bloc. Far more important are the concrete organisational bodies that the BRICS are now creating for moving forward in each economic and social sector, such as agriculture, energy, transport, finance, manufacturing, health, education etc. These bodies are designed to bring together the relevant BRICS members and BRICS candidates in each sector in order to identify the problems that exist and what needs to be done to overcome them.

China is providing extensive assistance to enable these sectoral bodies to be established and to be effective. In this way China is clearly the driving force behind BRICS. Indeed, China is effectively seeking to help plan the developing world. And bringing its infrastructure building, investment and innovation expertise to the task. All of which integrates with what China is doing in its Belt and Road Initiative which is now reaching 155 countries.    

Global Security

As socialists we know too well that no ruling class gives up without a fight. Thus, we must expect the ruling elites in the United States and its allies to savagely resist the emergence of BRICS as the pre-eminent force on the planet. After all, not only is the power and prestige of the neo-imperialist order at stake, but so also are the ill-gotten gains of the profit-hungry multinationals as their sources of exploitation inexorably shrink.  

The BRICS members are all too aware of this danger, having witnessed countless examples of imperialist and neo-imperialist aggression over the centuries. To counter the threat, China has advanced its Global Security Initiative. Through this China is helping the developing countries to prepare to overcome the resistance of the Global North. Behind the scenes, China and its close partners are getting the BRICS to work for: 

+ Peace through Development As the examples of the Horn of Africa and the Middle East/West Asia already show, China and its allies are consciously taking steps to overcome the divisions in the developing world that have been long encouraged, financed and armed by the Western powers. This is being done by convincing those countries currently embroiled in conflicts to abandon these hostilities and unify in favour of a programme of ‘peace and prosperity’.

+ Genuine national sovereignty and democracy There is a rising awareness of the huge scale of western interference in the internal political life of most developing countries. Along with the use of fake democratic systems which continue to maintain neo-imperialist domination and suck out the resources of even the poorest countries. The current upsurge in ‘Francophone’ Africa is a classic example of the problem and the growing resistance to it. We need to develop various ways to overcome the western methods of democratic manipulation and work out what to replace them with in order to encourage authentic forms of public expression and participation.

+ A Progressive Media A key tool in the neo-imperialist armoury is its control of much of the global media. To further buttress such control the United States and its allies have recently allocated huge sums as part of a propaganda war against BRICS, BRI and linked movements. In response, a BRICS Media Forum has been created to discuss how to overcome this problem. The recent Forum meeting in South Africa which was co-hosted by China’s Xinhua News Agency and the China Energy Investment Corporation, highlighted the need for the developing countries to take practical steps to encourage more positive reporting of the activities and values of the BRICS. More fundamental is the question of what steps are needed by developing countries to stop external interference in their mainstream and social media channels. And how to establish genuinely democratic control of them.

Potential Military Conflict

The neo-imperialists are always ready to resort to arms in order to defend their interests. The proxy war in Ukraine is a current example of the lengths to which they will go to ensure that the world is subjugated to their rule. So too with the war drums that they are now beating against China. As we have explained in the above paragraphs, the BRICS is fast approaching geo-political parity with the Western powers. In the coming decades the BRICS could become the decisive leadership of the world. If it does so, divisions between and within countries in the neo-imperialist camp will increase, with more and more counties peeling off to join the new world order. Thus, the neo-imperialist bloc will rapidly shrink in economic influence and military power. And lose faith in its ‘manifest destiny to rule’.

However, it is precisely at this moment when the new world order is appearing alongside and passing the old world order that friction and danger is at its highest. If, through patience, determination and resistance to provocation, we can avoid war in this crucial period, then the potential for mankind to overcome its contradictions and challenges will grow ever brighter.

Conclusion

Whether all or part of China’s strategy for a new world order will be successful we cannot say. Especially in the face of serious resistance from the neo-imperialist powers who will use every trick in the book, to divide, undermine and prevent this outcome. Then there is the issue of the capitalist system that operates in most of the developing world. Certainly, the BRICS will not replace the class struggle which will need to be continued in each country in order to ensure the aims of this programme are fully realised. But the BRICS programme and the progressive propaganda that surrounds it can inspire working people and create a better environment for the class struggle to be waged successfully. 

Notwithstanding the many problems that building the BRICS and implementing its programme will entail, one can never achieve something without trying. In that sense, the world-changing movement that BRICS potentially represents, and China’s elaborate strategy that lies behind it, is a very serious effort that deserves our critical support.