The analysis below by Lauri Myllyvirta, originally published on Carbon Brief, demonstrates that, “for the first time, the growth in China’s clean power generation has caused the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall despite rapid power demand growth”. This indicates that China has almost certainly achieved its target of peaking emissions before 2030.
The article reports that China’s emissions were down 1.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, and notes that the country’s decline in fossil fuel usage resulted not from a slowdown in the economy or reduced energy demand, but from a rapid increase in the share of clean energy – solar, wind, nuclear and hydroelectric – in the power mix. “If this pattern is sustained, then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China’s power-sector emissions.”
While noting that the possibility of a rebound in emissions later in the coming years cannot be ruled out should the government’s energy strategy significantly shift, Myllyvirta writes: “All of this suggests that there is potential for China’s emissions to continue to fall and for the country to achieve substantial absolute emissions reductions over the next five years”.
This progress is world-historic, because China’s emissions are reducing in spite of the fact that its overall energy demand continues to rise, and it continues to be a major industrial power. Thus its emissions reduction is the result not of de-industrialisation but of systematic investment and innovation in renewable energy. As such it is a model of sustainable development with important implications for other developing countries.
Lauri Myllyvirta is lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute.
For the first time, the growth in China’s clean power generation has caused the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall despite rapid power demand growth.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that China’s emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1% in the latest 12 months.
Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged, whereas previous falls were due to weak growth.
The analysis, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable, or falling, for more than a year.
However, they remain only 1% below the latest peak, implying that any short-term jump could cause China’s CO2 emissions to rise to a new record.
Other key findings include:
- Growth in clean power generation has now overtaken the current and long-term average growth in electricity demand, pushing down fossil fuel use.
- Power-sector emissions fell 2% year-on-year in the 12 months to March 2025.
- If this pattern is sustained, then it would herald a peak and sustained decline in China’s power-sector emissions.
- The trade “war” initiated by US president Donald Trump has prompted renewed efforts to shift China’s economy towards domestic consumption, rather than exports.
- A new pricing policy for renewables has caused a rush to install before it takes effect.
- There is a growing gap that would need to be bridged if China is to meet the 2030 emissions targets it pledged under the Paris Agreement.
If sustained, the drop in power-sector CO2 as a result of clean-energy growth could presage the sort of structural decline in emissions anticipated in previous analysis for Carbon Brief.
The trend of falling power-sector emissions is likely to continue in 2025.
Continue reading Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time