The following text is based on a speech given by Danny Haiphong at a hybrid public meeting (live in Portland and online via Zoom) on the theme of defending Socialist China.
Danny addresses the various questions circulating currently about what the Trump administration’s approach to China will be, noting that, some tactical differences notwithstanding, the two mainstream US political parties are united in their pursuit of a strategy aimed at containing China, encircling it, and suppressing its rise. “The overall trend of aggression toward China remains on an upward trajectory regardless of the duopoly party in the oval office.”
Danny notes that the escalating New Cold War on China is not having the desired effect, and that there is a serious possibility of the US ruling class resorting to direct military aggression. “US sanctions have failed. US militarization has failed. The US under Trump truly does not know how to approach China. It is certain however that the aggression will ramp up again.”
Given that the US and China are both nuclear powers, and that the US (unlike China) does not have a no-first-use policy, and has used nuclear weapons, and consistently engages in nuclear bullying, there is a significant danger of nuclear war. That threat must motivate a systematic response of solidarity from progressive forces around the world.
As long as the United States remains the capitalist empire that it is, we can expect it to continue pursuing China containment. That means we are all going to have to be ready to oppose these anti-China narratives, to expose people to the real China, and to build people-to-people ties and the necessary solidarity to ensure that we roll back this war machine once and for all.
We in the US tend to be captive to narrative and spin, to personality and hubris. The cult of individualism is powerful. Class consciousness and organization in the US, not so much. In this context we find ourselves pulled into the vortex of obsessing over Trump. And indeed, Trump puts on a show. Hundreds of executive orders and endless political theater acts have many Americans’ heads spinning.
Is Trump a “peacemaker”? Will he End the War in Ukraine? Is a Golden Age in America coming? These are all the wrong questions. The question of China teaches us this.
Why? Because the US empire is just that, an empire, and it’s ruled by a class of capitalist elites who see China as a threat.
They’ve already spoken through Trump’s team. During his confirmation hearing, little Marco Rubio called China the biggest threat to the US and his first meeting as a so-called diplomat was with the anti-China “Quad” – Australia, India, US and Japan.
Yet Trump called Xi Jinping on the first days of his administration. As president-elect he said the US and China should solve the world’s problems together.
Underneath the contradictions however is a singular goal: the weakening and containment of China.
But it isn’t working. Trump isn’t a signal of strength. He is a sign of a decaying empire. The weakness is everywhere. Trump has clearly outlined a pivot back to the West. Greenland, Mexico, Latin America (Panama Canal) are all in the crosshairs now. This isn’t new. No, it’s quite old. And while the US empire has the means to cause destruction, Trump’s current trajectory is actually a concession of long-term strategic defeat.
It appears despite Rubio’s bloviating that China will not and cannot be contained, nor is it a threat. The explosion of Americans’ use of the Chinese Red Note has taught millions of Americans why China is not a threat to them. Quite the contrary, China offers an example of a prospering society that is increasing the living standards of the people.
Chinese tech is not based on theft nor is its economy declining. Actually, China has just surpassed the US in another realm of tech, Open Source AI, and its steady 5 percent growth replete with state of the art infrastructure has no end in sight.
US sanctions have failed. US militarization has failed. The US under Trump truly does not know how to approach China. It is certain however that the aggression will ramp up again. After all, Rubio’s words are not his own. They are the concoction of a national security strategy that was adopted under Trump’s first term and continued into Biden’s second.
We must deal with the facts when it comes to China under Trump.
Fact #1: while rhetoric may come and go, get more hostile at times and less at others, the overall trend of aggression toward China remains on an upward trajectory regardless of the duopoly party in the oval office. Obama began the Pivot to Asia and sent the US military to China’s door. Trump then added sanctions and tariffs and propaganda war color revolution style interference, which Biden then increased under the guise of strategic competition.
Fact #2: Short of nuclear war, China cannot be stopped. Short of nuclear war, China is primed to defend its sovereignty with a state of the art military. Its economy is robust with planning mechanisms that ensure flexibility and rapid changes when conditions require it. Its political system is the most legitimate in the world enjoying widespread popular support. Its economic integration with the world’s poorest peoples and nations ensures that the foundations of a new development path is being built, one that fosters resilience in the multipolar world and moves away from the fragile and crisis ridden unipolar world. Its own Belt and Road Initiative is now 200+ countries strong and one trillion USD and more in total development. This is not to mention its role in BRICS and multilateral mechanisms like the SCO which it plays a central role.
And then fact number three, maybe the most important fact of all here, is that the US Empire is, in fact, a declining empire, no matter how it may look on the world stage. In places like West Asia, Syria, we saw the fall of Syria, which was devastating to the anti-war and anti-imperialist movement. We’ve witnessed the year-plus now, a year and a half, of genocide in Gaza and so many other world calamities. But none of these have actually strengthened the Empire’s hand. The US simply cannot hold on to West Asia; it’s losing its dominance there every single day. It’s already lost legitimacy in much of Latin America. It has no presence in Africa beyond military occupation and provocations.
This means that the US will increasingly rely on military means to get the empire’s dirty dealings done, and that includes to provoke China. There is no other option the United States has at this point. But the problem is, the United States actually can’t get into a hot war with China. That would be absolutely suicidal, not only for the total global economy, capitalist and otherwise, but also because all the war games have shown that the United States cannot win this war, that it ends up being a stalemate or a draw.
But the truth is that the United States couldn’t defeat Korea, could not defeat Vietnam, could not defeat Afghanistan, could not defeat the people of Palestine in Gaza who were fighting urban guerrilla warfare under the rubble. The United States empire simply cannot defeat really anybody at this time. Suffering caused, absolutely yes. Defeat and victory, absolutely not. So, the only option the United States has with China, the only way it will get to this overall strategic competition finality, is nuclear war. That’s the only option left in the United States’s arsenal.
And that’s why this moment is incredibly critical. This means that we are all in danger until we confront the forces that are moving us toward war with China.
The closer the United States’s Empire gets toward war with China, the closer we are ultimately to nuclear war. The United States has already used nuclear weapons and has shown that it’s willing to spend trillions of dollars to renew them, to create more of them, and has already, under the previous administration, talked about how it is going to revamp its nuclear strategy in case of the need for future use of nuclear weapons.
As long as the United States remains the capitalist empire that it is, we can expect it to continue pursuing China containment. That means we are all going to have to be ready to oppose these anti-China narratives, to expose people to the real China, and to build people-to-people ties and the necessary solidarity to ensure that we roll back this war machine once and for all.
