The following article by C.J. Atkins, published first in People’s World, analyses the apparently drastic differences between the Trump and Biden administrations’ foreign policy agendas, explaining the underlying strategic and ideological agenda behind Trump’s pivot on Ukraine, and debunking the assorted “simplistic hot takes centered on Trump’s admiration for strongmen or conspiratorial allegations that hinge on Russian blackmail and compromising material”.
Atkins gets to the heart of the issue by pointing out that the differences between Republicans and Democrats over Ukraine are “evidence of a split within the US ruling class which has exploded into the open. At the heart of that split are differences over how to resolve the long-term crisis of US capitalism and confront China’s rise to prominence in the world economy.” He explains that the Washington foreign policy establishment has spent years attempting to weaken Russia, seeing “the further extension of US power in Europe as an important milestone along the road to dealing with China”. Trump on the other hand aims to “take confrontation with Russia off the table”, considering it an “expensive distraction”.
The author further opines that Trump’s tariffs and coercive measures against Canada, Mexico, and Latin America are aimed at bringing those parts of the world “into a tighter embrace with the US economy”, consolidating a trade bloc that excludes and attempts to isolate China. That is, they extend the “decoupling” agenda pursued during Trump 1.0 as well as by the Biden administration.
With US monopoly capital increasingly feeling the competition from China, “the foreign policy being pursued by the Trump administration is an expression of the fears of a large section of the capitalist class, and those fears are why we have witnessed a rush toward the Trump camp by industrial sectors which had previously been skeptical of or neutral toward him.”
If the war in Ukraine can be swiftly ended, this is undoubtedly positive. But people should not think Trump’s overtures to Russia reflect some overarching orientation towards peace. Aggression against Russia is set to be replaced with “a new Cold War against China, the carving up of the world into blocs on behalf of big corporations, more destruction in the Middle East, and the ditching of democracy at home—along with all the things that entails, like labor laws, women’s rights, racial equality, and more.”
Trump labeled President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and called him out for not holding elections earlier this week. He said the Ukrainian leader only wants to “keep the gravy train” of U.S. money rolling in, and blamed him for starting the war with Russia.
Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, was said to be committed to “common sense.” The White House declared him to be someone Trump can “work together” with “very closely.”
What a world of difference from just a few months ago when a different U.S. president called Zelensky a “courageous and determined” defender of democracy and denounced Putin as a “war criminal.”
This dramatic turnaround is just the latest example of the about-face that’s happened in U.S. foreign policy over the last several weeks—a change that’s sparked confusion and bewilderment as 80 years of U.S. imperial strategy is seemingly being thrown overboard.
In Europe, Vice President J.D. Vance recently trashed political leaders there for not working together with fascists and initiated what one commentator called “the opening salvo in a trans-Atlantic divorce proceeding.” Snubbing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Trump’s V.P. met with Alice Weidel, leader of the neo-Nazi Alternative for Germany party, instead.
Continue reading Cold Peace with Russia / Cold War with China: Trump’s foreign policy agenda