In the following article on Geopolitical Economy, Ben Norton explores the complex political dynamics underlying the Trump administration’s move towards ending the conflict in Ukraine.
The summary is that “Trump is trying to divide Russia from China, in an attempt to isolate Beijing”, because “the United States sees China as the number one threat to its global dominance”.
Ben notes that Trump and top members of his cabinet have repeatedly expressed their desire to focus on countering China, and that Trump, in an interview with Tucker Carlson last year, openly stated that “you never want Russia and China uniting… I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them.”
This plan has been described as a “reverse Nixon/Kissinger strategy”, in that it seeks to revive Kissinger’s “triangular diplomacy”, befriending one of the two major enemies in order to isolate the other. Whereas the Soviet Union was the number one enemy in the 1970s, China is now seen as the main threat, as the world’s largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, and the driving force behind the trajectory towards a multipolar world.
Ben further notes that such a strategy is consistent with the ideas laid out in Zbigniew Brzezinski’s 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, which argued that the US should prevent the rise of a Eurasian power that could challenge its global hegemony. Brzezinski wrote that “the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances. It would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this time China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower.”
In short, “Trump hopes that by trying to divide Russia and China, he can weaken Beijing, reverse US decline, and save the US empire.” However, given the depth of the strategic partnership between Russia and China, it is unlikely that such a strategy will succeed.
The Donald Trump administration is holding talks between the United States and Russia, and he says he wants to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio has even proposed that the US could “partner with the Russians, geopolitically”.
What is happening here? The simple answer is that this is all about China.
Trump is trying to divide Russia from China, in an attempt to isolate Beijing.
The United States sees China as the number one threat to its global dominance. This has been stated clearly by top officials in both the Trump administration and the previous Joe Biden administration.
Rubio dubbed China “the single greatest challenge this nation has ever faced”. Trump’s CIA Director John Ratcliffe asserted that “China was far and away our top national security threat”.
Trump’s plan to split Russia and China
Trump made this strategy clear in an interview with Tucker Carlson, the right-wing talk show host, on October 31, 2024.
Trump said it was a “shame” and it was “stupid” that the US had pushed China and Russia together.
“I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them”, Trump stated.
The following is a partial transcript of his remarks (emphasis added):
We are a nation in decline. We are a nation in very serious decline. And look at what these stupid people have done. They’ve allowed Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others to get together in a group. This is impossible to think.
When I was a young guy, I loved, I always loved the whole thing, the concept of the history, and all of the things that can happen. The one thing — and I had a professor at the Wharton School of Finance, but we had history classes also.
He said the one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. We united them, because of the oil. We united them. Biden united them. It’s a shame, the stupidity of what they have done.
I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them.
But early on I’ve read, and you’ve learned, you never want Russia and China — and they’re natural enemies, because Russia has massive land, and China needs it.
…
They’re a natural enemy. And we’ve allowed them become, to get together. It’s such a dangerous thing.
Another thing that we’re doing is we’re losing the dollar as the standard, because of these people that are so — if we lose the dollar as the standard, that’s like losing a war. And it’ll never happen with me. There’s no way that will happen with me.
Trump threatens BRICS
What is noteworthy is how Trump immediately linked the close partnership between China and Russia to the issue of de-dollarization, the international drive to create alternatives to the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
China is Russia’s largest trading partner, and the two countries have almost entirely removed the US dollar from their bilateral trade. Instead, they now use their domestic currencies, the renminbi and ruble, in more than 90% of settlements.
Fears of de-dollarization have led Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on BRICS countries and other nations that drop the dollar in international trade and foreign exchange reserves.
Continue reading Trump wants US to ‘partner’ with Russia to weaken China: Divide-and-conquer strategy