In the following article, originally published in Beijing Review on 17 November, Carlos Martinez provides an overview of the draft of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Carlos writes that “every Five-Year Plan is important but this one arrives at a truly pivotal moment in terms of China’s development trajectory and the global environment”, noting that the government has set an ambitious goal of “basically achieving socialist modernisation” by 2035, while at the same time the country faces an escalating campaign of containment and encirclement led by the US.
The United States in particular is responding to the rise of China and the emergence of a more multipolar world order with a New Cold War strategy designed to perpetuate US hegemony and hobble China’s progress.
In the face of a highly unpredictable tariff war, export controls, unilateralism, protectionism and so-called decoupling – along with an escalating campaign of encirclement and containment – China’s strategists necessarily have to focus on deepening domestic innovation and technological self-reliance.
The article points out the central themes of the draft plan, in particular technological development, advanced industry, common prosperity, and ecological protection. It also points to the highly democratic nature of China’s planning process. Carlos concludes:
In a turbulent and complex global environment, China continues to work towards socialist modernisation, building common prosperity and an ecological civilisation, while engaging with the world on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefit. The 15th Five-Year Plan represents a comprehensive and forward-looking blueprint for achieving these goals.
The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held its fourth plenary session in Beijing from October 20–23, 2025. The plenary’s central task was to deliberate on the framework of the country’s next national development roadmap: the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which will be formally adopted at next year’s National People’s Congress.
Every Five-Year Plan is important but this one arrives at a truly pivotal moment in terms of China’s development trajectory and the global environment.
The CPC’s 20th National Congress in October 2022 laid out a two-step strategic proposal for building China into a “great modern socialist country in all respects” by the middle of the century. The first step is to “basically achieve socialist modernisation” by 2035. The period from 2026 and 2030 will be critically important in building the foundations for reaching that milestone.
At the plenary, General Secretary Xi Jinping observed:
The 15th Five-Year Plan period will serve as a critical stage in building on past successes to break new ground for basically achieving socialist modernisation. It is important that we seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and build on our strengths, remove development bottlenecks, shore up areas of weakness, seize the strategic initiative amid intense international competition, and secure major breakthroughs in strategic tasks of overall importance to Chinese modernisation.
Xi further elaborated on the meaning of “basically achieving socialist modernisation”, noting that it would include China’s per capita GDP reaching the level of the mid-level developed countries. There is no internationally agreed definition of this category, but a State Council analysis in 2021 estimated that it would correspond to a per capita GDP of about 30,000 USD, just over double China’s current level.
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