In the following article, Steve Ellner provides a detailed analysis of Donald Trump’s Latin America policy as he embarks on his second presidential term, arguing that its bellicosity is closely related to US imperialism’s increased hostility to China.
According to Ellner: “US President Donald Trump’s threats to take over the Panama Canal, convert Canada into the 51st state and purchase Greenland may not be as ludicrous as they seemed. The proposals, albeit unachievable, lay the groundwork for a more ‘rational’ strategy of targeting China (not so much Russia) and singling out real adversaries (as opposed to Canada and Panama), which include Cuba and Venezuela, with Bolivia not far behind.”
Arguing that much of Trump’s analysis is drawn from the right-wing Heritage Foundation, he draws attention to the think tank’s James Carafano’s advocacy of a “rejuvenation of the Monroe Doctrine”.
Trump’s choice of anti-Cuba zealot Marco Rubio as secretary of state reinforces the perception that the Trump administration’s foreign policy will pay special attention to Latin America and that Latin American policy will prioritise two enemies: China and the continent’s leftist governments. Carafano calls the strategy ‘a pivot to Latin America.’
He notes that the threat to Panama is a reminder that currents on the right and within the Republican Party still denounce the “canal giveaway.” Ronald Reagan warned against it in his attempt to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 1976 and again raised the issue in his successful bid for the presidency four years later.
Drawing attention to what he considers a certain difference in approach from that taken by the US Democratic Party, he observes that, “the McCarthyite new right targets the more leftist Pink Tide leaders such as those of Venezuela and Cuba, but it is not letting moderate ones such as Lula off the hook. Rubio calls Brazil’s Lula a ‘far-left leader,’ while Musk has expressed certainty that he will not be reelected in 2026. Some analysts have raised the possibility that Trump will slap the Lula government with tariffs and sanctions to support the return to power of Jair Bolsonaro and the Brazilian far right.”
Trump’s real target in all three threats [against Panama, Canada and Greenland] was China… Trump made his case for the annexation of the Panama Canal, Canada and Greenland (a gateway to the Arctic) by arguing for the need to block China’s growing presence in the hemisphere…
In the 21st century, China’s investment in and trade with Latin America have increased exponentially. China has now surpassed the US as South America’s top trading partner. Some economists predict that the net value of trade, which in 2022 was valued at $450 billion, will exceed $700 billion by 2035.
When it comes to Washington’s anti-China rhetoric, competition with the US on the economic front receives less attention than it merits. If ever the ‘it’s the economy stupid’ [a phrase made famous by Bill Clinton] statement was apropos, it is in the case of China’s challenge to US hegemony.
The Heritage Foundation’s 38,000-word ‘Plan for Countering China,’ enumerates an endless number of non-economic threats [supposedly] posed by China. Many of the threats put the spotlight on Latin America due to its proximity. For example: ‘China’s role in global drug trafficking, exploiting instability in the US and Latin America caused by illegal migration… The US government should close loopholes in immigration law and policy that China is exploiting.’
Surveying the role played by the Latin American right in this situation, he notes that former Brazilian President Bolsonaro and current Argentine President Milei employed extreme anti-China rhetoric in opposition, only to adopt a more pragmatic approach in office.
“All this indicates that the Trump administration will probably face resistance to its anti-China campaign in Latin America from an unexpected source, namely local business interests.”
This article contains some formulations and opinions with which the editors of this website are not fully in agreement. However, we reproduce it for its detailed factual presentation, interesting analysis and clear anti-imperialist standpoint. It was originally published by Links, an Australian publication which describes itself as an international journal of socialist renewal. A slightly abridged version was first published in Jacobin.
Steve Ellner is an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives and a retired professor at the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela, where he lived for over 40 years.
US President Donald Trump’s threats to take over the Panama Canal, convert Canada into the 51st state and purchase Greenland may not be as ludicrous as they seemed. The proposals, albeit unachievable, lay the groundwork for a more “rational” strategy of targeting China (not so much Russia) and singling out real adversaries (as opposed to Canada and Panama), which include Cuba and Venezuela, with Bolivia not far behind. The strategy is what James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation calls the “Rejuvenation of the Monroe Doctrine,” which, after all, in its day encompassed Canada and Greenland in addition to Latin America.
Trump’s choice of anti-Cuba zealot Marco Rubio as secretary of state reinforces the perception that the Trump administration’s foreign policy will pay special attention to Latin America and that Latin American policy will prioritise two enemies: China and the continent’s leftist governments. Carafano calls the strategy “a pivot to Latin America.”
Political analyst Juan Gabriel Tokatlian writing in Americas Quarterly was more specific. After citing Trump’s plans for military action against Mexico, Cuba and Venezuela in his first administration, Tokatlian reasons “a second Trump White House may well lack some of the more rational voices that averted more rash actions the first time around.”
Continue reading Trump’s war on China in Latin America
