China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: A blueprint for people-centred development

In the following article, originally published in Beijing Review on 17 November, Carlos Martinez provides an overview of the draft of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Carlos writes that “every Five-Year Plan is important but this one arrives at a truly pivotal moment in terms of China’s development trajectory and the global environment”, noting that the government has set an ambitious goal of “basically achieving socialist modernisation” by 2035, while at the same time the country faces an escalating campaign of containment and encirclement led by the US.

The United States in particular is responding to the rise of China and the emergence of a more multipolar world order with a New Cold War strategy designed to perpetuate US hegemony and hobble China’s progress.

In the face of a highly unpredictable tariff war, export controls, unilateralism, protectionism and so-called decoupling – along with an escalating campaign of encirclement and containment – China’s strategists necessarily have to focus on deepening domestic innovation and technological self-reliance.

The article points out the central themes of the draft plan, in particular technological development, advanced industry, common prosperity, and ecological protection. It also points to the highly democratic nature of China’s planning process. Carlos concludes:

In a turbulent and complex global environment, China continues to work towards socialist modernisation, building common prosperity and an ecological civilisation, while engaging with the world on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefit. The 15th Five-Year Plan represents a comprehensive and forward-looking blueprint for achieving these goals.

The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held its fourth plenary session in Beijing from October 20–23, 2025. The plenary’s central task was to deliberate on the framework of the country’s next national development roadmap: the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which will be formally adopted at next year’s National People’s Congress.

Every Five-Year Plan is important but this one arrives at a truly pivotal moment in terms of China’s development trajectory and the global environment.

The CPC’s 20th National Congress in October 2022 laid out a two-step strategic proposal for building China into a “great modern socialist country in all respects” by the middle of the century. The first step is to “basically achieve socialist modernisation” by 2035. The period from 2026 and 2030 will be critically important in building the foundations for reaching that milestone.

At the plenary, General Secretary Xi Jinping observed:

The 15th Five-Year Plan period will serve as a critical stage in building on past successes to break new ground for basically achieving socialist modernisation. It is important that we seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and build on our strengths, remove development bottlenecks, shore up areas of weakness, seize the strategic initiative amid intense international competition, and secure major breakthroughs in strategic tasks of overall importance to Chinese modernisation.

Xi further elaborated on the meaning of “basically achieving socialist modernisation”, noting that it would include China’s per capita GDP reaching the level of the mid-level developed countries. There is no internationally agreed definition of this category, but a State Council analysis in 2021 estimated that it would correspond to a per capita GDP of about 30,000 USD, just over double China’s current level.

Meanwhile, the 15th Five-Year Plan is being drafted against a backdrop of intensifying global turbulence. The United States in particular is responding to the rise of China and the emergence of a more multipolar world order with a New Cold War strategy designed to perpetuate US hegemony and hobble China’s progress.

In the face of a highly unpredictable tariff war, export controls, unilateralism, protectionism and so-called decoupling – along with an escalating campaign of encirclement and containment – China’s strategists necessarily have to focus on deepening domestic innovation and technological self-reliance.

Building a modernised industrial system

The communique released following the conclusion of the plenum summed up the key tasks of the 15th Five-Year Plan as follows:

We should keep our focus on the real economy, continue to pursue smart, green, and integrated development, and work faster to boost China’s strength in manufacturing, product quality, aerospace, transportation, and cyberspace. The share of manufacturing in the national economy should be kept at an appropriate level, and a modernised industrial system should be developed with advanced manufacturing as the backbone.

The meeting called for “extraordinary measures” to achieve “decisive breakthroughs” in semiconductors and other advanced technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, and 6G mobile communications. Xi Jinping stated: “The most important factor in promoting high-quality development is to accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.”

One recurring theme of the plan is the transition from innovation to industrial capacity, marking a further step in China’s dramatic upgrading of its economic structure, from being the world’s largest low-cost manufacturing hub to becoming the “innovation engine of a multipolar global order”, as Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, put it in a recent article for Global Times.

Common prosperity and people-centred development

If technological upgrading forms one pillar of the plan, common prosperity forms the other.

China defines modernisation not as the enrichment of an elite, but as “modernisation of common prosperity for all”, with full and high-quality employment, a fairer income distribution, a stronger safety net, improved public health and education, integrated urban-rural development, and rural revitalisation as central components. President Xi stated of the draft plan:

Firmly anchored in the goal of common prosperity for all and the need to ensure and improve the people’s wellbeing, the document recommends a series of balanced and accessible policies and measures to promote high-quality full employment, optimise the income distribution system, develop education that meets the people’s expectations, refine the social security system, promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, advance the Healthy China Initiative, bolster high-quality population development, and make steady efforts to ensure equitable access to basic public services.

As such, the plan represents a comprehensive blueprint for people-centred development, integrating people’s wellbeing with the nation’s long-term strategic interests.

In pursuit of ecological civilisation

The formulation that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” continues to anchor China’s environmental agenda.

The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasises the need to “accelerate the green transition in all areas of economic and social development in an effort to build a Beautiful China”. It commits to making concerted efforts to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, strengthen ecosystem restoration and pollution reduction, and build a new energy system, while “accelerating the shift to eco-friendly production practices and lifestyles”.

China already leads the world in renewable energy, electric vehicles, biodiversity protection, forestation, pollution control, electrification, and energy efficiency. It is the first major country to have successfully made green development a core national strategy and a driver of economic growth.

The 15th Five-Year Plan will further consolidate and expand these achievements, integrating the commitment to carbon neutrality into all aspects of development.

Democratic governance: from the masses, to the masses

A striking feature of the plan’s drafting process is the depth of public participation. The drafting group sent investigation teams to 12 provincial regions, visited 66 grassroots organisations, held symposiums with experts, and conducted a month-long online consultation that generated over 3.11 million public submissions and more than 1,500 constructive proposals.

By the end of the process, 2,112 suggestions had been incorporated, resulting in 218 revisions to the draft.

This reflects an enduring principle of CPC governance — the mass line, famously articulated by Mao Zedong:

We should go to the masses and learn from them, synthesise their experience into better, articulated principles and methods, then do propaganda among the masses, and call upon them to put these principles and methods into practice so as to solve their problems and help them achieve liberation and happiness.

This notion of “to the masses, from the masses, to the masses” is central to the formulation of policy in China, and Five-Years Plans are an important example of China’s whole-process people’s democracy.

Political continuity

The plenum stressed the importance of upholding and strengthening the leadership of the CPC, described by Xi Jinping as “the fundamental guarantee for advancing Chinese modernisation”.

The plenum communique also emphasised the importance of “upholding the guiding role of Marxism in the ideological domain”:

It was stressed that in pursuing economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we must stay committed to Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development, and fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

When first embarking on its reform and opening-up drive in 1978, China’s leaders made a strategic decision to prioritise economic development whilst adhering to the Four Cardinal Principles: upholding the socialist road; upholding the people’s democratic dictatorship; upholding the leadership of the CPC; and upholding Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought.

This dual focus has remained a defining feature of China’s development model, and goes a long way towards explaining its remarkable achievements. It is worthwhile comparing this strategy with the experience of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, where economic reform was accompanied by the dismantling of working class power and the Party’s leading role, culminating in the USSR’s collapse.

Conclusion

In a turbulent and complex global environment, China continues to work towards socialist modernisation, building common prosperity and an ecological civilisation, while engaging with the world on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefit. The 15th Five-Year Plan represents a comprehensive and forward-looking blueprint for achieving these goals.